Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 2.342860 2.730261 3.159594 3.670400 4.261344 4.923299 5.720904
2026-01-11 1.731796 2.247771 2.881061 3.714271 4.780595 6.098539 7.850553
2026-01-18 1.341277 1.902499 2.651551 3.721591 5.208233 7.197986 10.061252
2026-01-25 1.071676 1.638991 2.451815 3.696390 5.548981 8.199246 12.273488
2026-02-01 0.832719 1.361155 2.167094 3.478725 5.552666 8.697034 13.816935
2026-02-08 0.677610 1.175555 1.978554 3.358335 5.660163 9.334095 15.627759
2026-02-15 0.576009 1.054832 1.867050 3.332957 5.899618 10.190089 17.882590
2026-02-22 0.519614 0.999710 1.852475 3.461871 6.406044 11.537702 21.124760
2026-03-01 0.450602 0.908612 1.758515 3.431864 6.622566 12.407597 23.642125
2026-03-08 0.389851 0.821952 1.657712 3.370463 6.766598 13.157100 26.027844
2026-03-15 0.346109 0.761085 1.595687 3.371729 7.025071 14.142895 28.975252
2026-03-22 0.334448 0.764357 1.660451 3.634135 7.832266 16.274596 34.420212
2026-03-29 0.303060 0.721733 1.628287 3.699516 8.264631 17.758304 38.843609
2026-04-05 0.274381 0.680555 1.593708 3.756653 8.693463 19.303695 43.637727
2026-04-12 0.246054 0.635082 1.542398 3.768531 9.025501 20.691244 48.293197
2026-04-19 0.219203 0.588182 1.480065 3.744554 9.271728 21.923310 52.774448
2026-04-26 0.184841 0.515804 1.345140 3.524624 9.023761 22.008491 54.642657
2026-05-03 0.160658 0.465456 1.255972 3.402851 8.993597 22.590455 57.756927
2026-05-10 0.144275 0.433208 1.207539 3.377203 9.199250 23.760536 62.457042
2026-05-17 0.136496 0.423789 1.217648 3.507803 9.827148 26.048843 70.257683
2026-05-24 0.123084 0.395358 1.171440 3.477416 10.022701 27.271888 75.491380
2026-05-31 0.110106 0.365738 1.117032 3.415223 10.122081 28.259055 80.240127
2026-06-07 0.100703 0.345469 1.086284 3.416506 10.400062 29.756961 86.571107